Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Taking ⅓ off the table: Party Continues, we are sneaking out early.


Taking ⅓ off the table: Party Continues, we are sneaking out early. Also a look at the PFG VIX Model vs VIX Futures



We are going to unwind our second ⅓ of our gamma fund and keep our vega fund the same, currently with average short vega of duration of 2.5y.


Fund Changes by 1/3YTD Performance
XFN/XLU14%
EEM/SPX7.5%
Long/Short5.3%
Bond2.7%



Our thesis continues to be the same, we still believe in the positions, however still want to keep bullets in our pocket.  A couple of points
  • The rally is so narrow and only paying the beat up stocks of 2011.
  • Correlation has collapsed, Long/Short funds are finally getting paid
  • Bad to mild news continues to fuel a income targeting rally
  • No one is bullish



We are now ⅔ cash, ⅓ is still invested in our gamma fund and our vega fund is unchanged with a thematic short vega position.  Both funds are in positions of strength, taking out healthy gains in January and well funded to add good risk/reward trades. If correlation is a guide and we are moving towards any sort of normality, we expect our PFG VIX Model to be a good guide for us.



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